What Drives Wild Swings in Mortgage Rates? [Topic 1] Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and Their Job Numbers

What Drives Wild Swings in Mortgage Rates? [Topic 1] Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and Their Job Numbers. Every month, headlines are made when the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases the latest Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report. These figures are viewed as a vital gauge of U.S. economic strength, influencing everything from mortgage rates to the Federal Reserve's policy decisions.

But here’s what many people don't realize: the numbers that make headlines are often dramatically revised weeks - or even months - after the initial release.

Meanwhile, the ADP National Employment Report receives far less media attention but provides a steadier, more private-sector-focused snapshot of job growth. Most importantly, ADP's numbers are rarely revised.

So, how should we interpret these two data sets? And why does the market still place outsized weight on BLS numbers, even though they're often inaccurate?

📊 The Problem With BLS Revisions

The BLS estimates job gains or losses through a combination of surveys and modeling. These estimates are revised multiple times:

One month later (First Revision)
Two months later (Second Revision)
Annually (Benchmark Revision)

From January 2022 through February 2025, BLS reports were revised by a net 2.9 million jobs. Of that, 945,000 job gains were overstated - that's nearly four months of misrepresented job growth.

Example Revisions:

Jan 2022: Initial +467,000 → Final +225,000 → Revision: -242,000
Feb 2022: Initial +678,000 → Final +869,000 → Revision: +191,000
May 2022: Initial +390,000 → Final +241,000 → Revision: -149,000

These revisions drastically alter the narrative - from "booming economy" to "cooling labor market" - yet rarely generate the same media or market reaction.

Imagine getting a medical diagnosis, acting on it, and later learning the test was significantly off. That's how BLS revisions play out - except they affect mortgage borrowers, investors, and markets.

🏢 ADP: Less Buzz, More Stability

The ADP National Employment Report draws from real payroll data across 25 million workers. Unlike the BLS, it focuses strictly on private-sector jobs and uses fewer assumptions.

Key Advantages:

Based on actual payroll data
Rarely revised
More consistent view of employer hiring

While ADP and BLS use different methods, ADP's consistency makes it a valuable real-time indicator - even if the totals don't always match.

🧠 How Markets Interpret the Reports

Despite its flaws, the BLS NFP report still moves markets most immediately. Why?

It's historically considered the "gold standard"
It includes government jobs
It's frequently cited by the Federal Reserve

But many professionals - myself included - are beginning to shift focus toward the more reliable ADP numbers, especially when it comes to evaluating interest rate pressures.

📉 Numbers Behind the Narrative (2022 - 2025)

BLS job data from Jan 2022 to Apr 2025 shows:

Total downward revision: -945,000 jobs
Total absolute revision: 2,905,000 jobs
Average monthly job gain: ~489,000 jobs

That's nearly 6 months of average job creation lost or misstated.

By contrast, ADP's data was remarkably steady:

Feb 2022: +475,000 → No change
Mar 2022: +375,000 → No change

Only Jan 2022 had a major shift (from -301,000 to +509,000), likely due to a one-time methodology update.

🏠 Why It Matters to You

Employment trends drive:

Buyer confidence
Household income
Loan qualifications
Federal Reserve decisions

When BLS reports big job gains, rates often rise - only to find out later the data was overstated. Unfortunately, the market rarely corrects course with the same force.

I track both BLS and ADP numbers - but I also track the revisions. That's where the real story lives.

💡 Market Implications

The immediate impact of the BLS release creates:

False investor confidence or panic
Volatile rate shifts
Uncertainty for homebuyers, realtors, and lenders

ADP's consistency offers mortgage professionals and real estate advisors a clearer view of hiring trends.

✅ Bottom Line

BLS job numbers move markets but are often revised dramatically
Revisions receive little attention and carry less market influence
ADP provides a more stable and realistic job snapshot
We need a shift in focus - from headlines to real context

If you’re making financial decisions based on job market trends, let's talk. I'll help you sort out the noise, understand what the data really says, and align your mortgage strategy accordingly.

📞 Call me at 209-522-7100 or schedule a free consult here

And if any of your friends, family, or co-workers are looking to buy, sell, or refinance, can I count on you to introduce us via text or email?

📊 Calculations Based On:

BLS Revisions = Final Nonfarm Payroll - Initial Nonfarm Payroll
Total Downward Revision: −945,000 jobs
Total Absolute Revisions: 2,905,000 jobs (sum of absolute monthly changes)
Average Monthly Job Gain: ~489,000 jobs (mean of all valid BLS final job values)
Months of Misrepresented Growth = 2,905,000 ÷ 489,000 ≈ 6.0 months

📚 Sources (for reference and SEO):

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
ADP National Employment Report: https://adpemploymentreport.com/
Internal analysis based on actual data compiled from: BLS_ADP_Jobs_Data_Jan2022_Apr2025.xlsx (Final vs. Initial payroll comparisons, revision totals, and averages)